Some thoughts
The most elite thing in this world is power, which comes from military strength, scarce resources, core technology, public ideology, the influence of public opinion, and so on.
In the crypto world, there are several types of power:
1. Legislative and enforcement power
Representative: President of the United States
2. Liquidity controllers
Representative: CZ/BN
3. Ideology and public opinion
Representative: Musk
Technological innovation
Representative: Vitalik Buterin
As speculators, all speculative behavior comes from expectations, and all profits come from information asymmetry (including timing differences and cognitive differences).
Therefore, we must closely monitor the concerns, preferences, attitudes, and actions of these power holders.
It's like the "lychee of the concubine"; it has little "real significance," but a huge market impact.
For example, Musk's DOGE last year, cz's white paper, etc.
At the same time, the above also represents our entry and exit expectations.
1. Entry Expectations
(1) Public Opinion Fermentation
Private Domain Hot Discussion: Heated discussions in major communities
Public Domain Explosion: X trending, KOL endorsements
Attention from Power Brokers: Musk's posts, CZ discussions, coin listing announcements, Vitalik liking certain technologies
(2) Official Legal Status
Regulatory Support
Institutional Adoption
Official Twitter Support/Collaboration
(3) Increased Liquidity
Listing on Moonshot
Listing on Binance Alpha
Entering Contracts
Entering Spot Markets
Entering ETFs
(4) Market Space
Track Potential: Growth space for new narratives like DEX, RWA, etc.
Existing Markets
Potential Markets
(5) Technology Implementation
New Stories
New Asset Forms: Such as NFT, inscriptions
New Markets: Such as DEX
2. Exit Expectations:
(1) Public Opinion Peak
Typically, figures like Trump, Musk, cz, etc., represent the peak.
(2) Benchmarking and Imagination Limits
Horizontal Benchmarking: Market capitalization of leading projects in the same sector
Vertical Benchmarking: Overall market capitalization ranking in the crypto market
(3) Liquidity Peak
After the launch of contracts, spot trading, and ETFs
When many tokens in the same sector launch simultaneously and do not meet expectations
(4) Market Capacity Limit
Market Saturation: Slowing user/fund inflow, stagnation in growth.
Intensified Competition: New projects diverting market share
(5) Technological Iteration and Competitors
Technological Updates
Emergence of Competitors: For example, aster competing with hype, diverting funds and attention.
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